Ukraine is sending the war back to Russia — just in time for Victory Day

Zelensky Disclaims Responsibility as Questions Mount Over Security of Russia’s Victory Day Parade

In early May, Moscow’s grand boulevards echoed with the rumble of vintage tanks and the exhaust fumes of armored vehicles, as rehearsals ramped up for the city’s most symbolic annual event: the May 9 Victory Day Parade.

As in previous years, uniformed troops marched with precision through the capital, delighting onlookers and rehearsing for what is traditionally one of Russia’s grandest military spectacles. Yet, this year’s preparations are marked by a notably tense atmosphere.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky added to the unease when he stated Ukraine “cannot be held responsible” for what might occur during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s parade—fueling speculation that Ukraine could consider striking military targets inside Russia during the event.

A Showcase of Power and Nostalgia

The Victory Day parade is more than a commemorative event. Since the 1960s—and annually since 1995—it has served as Russia’s most prominent display of national pride, evoking both its Soviet past and present military power.

Under Putin, the event has taken on even greater importance. It has become a theatrical symbol of post-Soviet resurgence, especially commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

This year, the Kremlin aimed to amplify the pageantry. Dozens of foreign leaders were invited to underline Russia’s global alliances. Alongside the usual guests from Central Asia and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, the 2025 parade is expected to host Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

This marks a stark contrast with 2024, when the only attendees were from Belarus, Cuba, Laos, and Guinea-Bissau—and an even greater shift from 2022, when no foreign dignitaries attended at all.

Against this backdrop, Zelensky’s declaration and subsequent comments from senior Ukrainian officials have drawn fresh attention.

'No One Can Say What Might Happen'

Recent Ukrainian drone activity has demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory. In the days ahead of the parade, Moscow’s airports were temporarily shut down multiple times due to drone incursions, grounding holiday travel and exposing the vulnerability of the capital’s defenses.

According to Nichita Gurcov, a senior analyst at ACLED, while the majority of drones are intercepted, some manage to bypass air defenses.

“In March alone, we recorded 14 strikes in the Moscow region and four within the city itself, despite most Ukrainian attacks targeting the border regions of Belgorod and Kursk,” he said.

Still, Gurcov noted this doesn’t guarantee that Ukrainian drones will reach the capital on May 9.

“The Russian government is expected to shut down mobile internet in Moscow during the parade, which will disrupt GPS guidance systems that many Ukrainian drones rely on,” Gurcov told The Kyiv Independent. “Only a limited number of experimental AI-guided drones could still reach targets under those conditions.”

He added that Ukrainian strategy involves overwhelming Russian defenses with sheer volume: “The more drones launched, the higher the chance at least one gets through. But it’s impossible to say what will happen on the day of the parade.”

In anticipation of attacks, Putin announced a unilateral ceasefire to coincide with the celebration. Ukraine rejected the three-day truce, calling instead for a month-long halt in hostilities. Zelensky dismissed Russia’s ceasefire proposal as a “theatrical stunt” meant to ease its diplomatic isolation and sanitize the image of the May 9 festivities.

Shaping the Narrative

While Ukraine has the capacity to strike Moscow, analysts suggest the more pressing question is whether it intends to.

“This is about speaking the same language of force that Russia uses,” said Maria Piechowska, an expert on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). “Kyiv is signaling that it will not allow Russia to dictate the tempo or the optics of the conflict.”

By refusing to rule out a strike, Ukrainian officials keep the pressure on Russia—and the threat alive.

“Publicly hinting at a possible attack rallies Ukrainian morale at a time when Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities have killed dozens of civilians,” said Dr. Marnie Howlett, a University of Oxford scholar in Russian and East European politics.

“Ukraine is reminding the world that this war is still ongoing and that it hasn’t been defeated,” she added.

Piechowska agreed, noting that the narrative also serves a domestic purpose. “An attack on Victory Day, while hypothetical, is something many Ukrainians dream about. Even suggesting it gives the public a sense of agency and retaliation.”

Sending a Message to the World

The implied threat of a Ukrainian strike may also have influenced some foreign leaders’ decisions about attending the parade.

“I don’t think the fear of being hit by a drone was the main reason anyone declined,” Piechowska said. “But the discomfort of being associated with a country at war could have contributed to some hesitations.”

Howlett added, “The reality is that traveling to Russia now carries real risks. Ukraine’s warnings reflect that reality more than they aim to intimidate specific leaders.”

That risk materialized on May 7, when Ukrainian drone activity forced Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s plane to divert and land in Baku before continuing on to Moscow.

While Vučić eventually arrived, the incident underscored the precarious security situation—even in Russia’s capital.

“Ultimately, we still don’t know what will happen on May 9,” Gurcov said. “But the question itself—and Ukraine’s refusal to guarantee safety—has already reshaped how this parade is being seen both in Russia and abroad.”