Putin feared ‘stronger repercussions’ under Trump, says expert - ‘Unwilling to act’

As Russian forces continue their assault on Ukraine, a renewed political debate is emerging in the U.S. over the role of American leadership in deterring global aggression. Political commentator Simon Dolan has argued that Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a reflection of what he sees as weak international leadership from the Biden administration.

According to Dolan, who authored Trump: The Hidden Halo, Putin may have felt more emboldened under President Biden than he would have during Donald Trump’s term. “This is another clear example of how ineffective President Biden has been on the global stage,” Dolan claimed. “Putin’s willingness to invade a sovereign European nation speaks volumes about how he views the current leadership in Washington.”

Dolan went on to suggest that Trump’s brash and confrontational style may have served as a deterrent. “Had Trump still been in office, we likely would have seen a more forceful response, at least rhetorically. And during his four-year term, Putin held back from any large-scale military action like we’re seeing now.”

Some observers, however, point out that Putin's long-term ambitions stretch back well before any single U.S. administration, and that global dynamics, including Ukraine’s shifting alignment toward NATO and the EU, are key factors. They also note that in 2014 — under then-President Obama and Vice President Biden — Russia annexed Crimea, and that tensions have been building for over a decade regardless of which party holds power in Washington.

As fighting continues, the U.S. and its allies have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions targeting Russia’s central bank, major financial institutions, and key oligarchs. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently vowed to “paralyze” the Kremlin’s ability to fund its military campaign. “We will stop Putin from using his war chest,” she said. “We will freeze his central bank’s assets and make it impossible to liquidate them.”

Meanwhile, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russian troops are encountering logistical issues and stronger-than-expected Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainian forces have slowed Russia’s advances and taken prisoners, further complicating Putin’s military strategy.

Dolan acknowledged the efforts of European nations but emphasized his view that current geopolitical uncertainty — both in Europe and in Washington — may have influenced the Kremlin’s decision. “This isn’t solely America’s responsibility,” he said. “But Putin likely calculated that now was a time of weakness — both economically and politically — for the West.”

While perspectives differ on what may have deterred Putin, most analysts agree that unity among NATO allies and continued international pressure will play a critical role in determining how the conflict unfolds from here.