Who really came out on top at the Anchorage summit?
The recent Anchorage summit may have looked like a showdown between the United States and Russia, but the real winner wasn’t sitting at the table. It was China. And to a lesser extent, North Korea.
Both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin tried to give the impression that progress was being made on Ukraine. Trump spoke of “great progress,” while Putin used the word “agreement.” But when the press conference ended, there was no ceasefire, no roadmap, and no concrete breakthrough. Trump himself admitted, “We didn’t get there.”
And that’s exactly what Beijing wanted.
China benefits from a drawn-out war in Ukraine. If Russia falls, the U.S. could turn more of its attention to China, which Beijing is eager to avoid. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU’s foreign policy chief that China doesn’t want Russia to lose for this very reason.
Beyond prolonging the war, China gained something else: a precedent. Analysts like Charles Burton have noted that the Anchorage summit reinforced Beijing’s view that global issues should be handled in big-power deals, without smaller countries having much say. This could pave the way for a future Trump–China summit, where Beijing would push for concessions in East Asia—possibly even American recognition of North Korea.
And speaking of North Korea, Kim Jong Un hasn’t done badly either. His regime profits directly from the Ukraine war. Pyongyang has sold tens of thousands of containers of artillery shells and missiles to Russia. Reports even suggest that North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to the battlefield, with more possibly on the way. Russia, in turn, is said to be rewarding Pyongyang with both cash and weapons technology. For Kim, the war is a money-making opportunity.
But as the old saying goes, “No feast lasts forever.”
The U.S. has tools to end this arrangement quickly, starting with cutting off China’s financial support for Moscow. Trump has already imposed tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, but so far, he’s spared China—despite the fact that Beijing buys much more. At some point, patience may run out. If Putin remains stubborn, Trump could decide that diplomacy has reached its limit and shift to a harder line.
For now, China and North Korea are enjoying their gains. But the global stage can change quickly, and what looks like a win today could turn into a loss tomorrow.
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