Over the past few months, Ukraine has intensified its drone campaign deep inside Russian territory, targeting Moscow’s oil and gas infrastructure. This strategy is not only damaging Russia’s economy but also shaping the conditions for potential peace negotiations after more than three years of war.
🔹 Impact on Russia’s Oil Industry
According to reports, around 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity equal to 1.1 million barrels per day has been disabled by Ukrainian drone strikes. At least 10 refineries have been hit, including major facilities in Volgograd (Lukoil), Ryazan (Rosneft), and other regions such as Rostov, Samara, Saratov, and Krasnodar. Critical infrastructure like the Druzhba pipeline, Novatek’s fuel export terminal, and Ust-Luga’s Baltic processing center has also been targeted.
🔹 Economic Pressure on Moscow
Russia has been forced to tighten gasoline export restrictions due to rising domestic demand from agriculture and tourism, while also selling its natural resources at discounted prices under the weight of Western sanctions. Oil and gas account for roughly a quarter of Russia’s state revenue, making these attacks a direct hit on Moscow’s financial stability.
Despite this, Russia has increased its defense spending by 25% the highest level since the Cold War as weapons production continues to surge.
🔹 Geopolitical Context
The strikes come as U.S. President Donald Trump recently met with both Ukrainian and Russian leaders, signaling Washington’s interest in brokering a ceasefire. At the same time, the U.S. is pressuring major Russian oil buyers like China and India to reduce their imports, aiming to force President Putin to the negotiating table.
🔹 Consequences Beyond Energy
Ukraine’s drone offensive has disrupted not only oil exports but also Russian air travel and domestic fuel supplies, creating shortages in some regions. This adds to the mounting pressure on the Kremlin at a time when its economy is already strained.
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