Why is the war in Ukraine considered an “existential challenge” for Vladimir Putin?
Political commentator Benedict Spence has warned that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is not only existential for Ukraine’s survival but also for Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
Speaking to LBC, Spence explained that the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia, combined with Western support for Ukraine’s military, have created immense pressure on Moscow’s leadership and economy. While Russia’s military operation is not a total failure, it has also not achieved the quick, decisive results that Putin likely expected.
According to Spence, this creates a dangerous situation:
If Putin does not achieve success, he faces humiliation — and unlike other world leaders, exile or quiet retirement may not be an option.
Instead, failure could mean the end of his rule and even his life.
This makes him more determined to cling to power and continue escalating the war, no matter the cost.
Spence also warned that Russia’s potential defeat could trigger a chaotic internal power struggle. Disillusioned soldiers, angry citizens, and vast amounts of uncontrolled weaponry could create instability within Russia itself, making the outcome unpredictable and dangerous.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace also cautioned that, as Ukrainian resistance slows Moscow’s advances, Russia may resort to indiscriminate carpet bombing tactics on cities. He highlighted that Ukrainian defenders have been successfully targeting fuel convoys, rail lines, and logistical hubs — forcing Russia to shift strategies.
The analysis underscores why the Ukraine conflict is not just a geopolitical battle but also a life-or-death struggle for Putin’s survival in power.
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