A new intelligence report suggests that Russian sabotage operations across Europe are entering a dangerous new stage. After a dramatic surge in attacks and attempted attacks in 2024, experts are now warning that the recent “lull” in 2025 may not be a sign of de-escalation, but rather a strategic regrouping by Vladimir Putin’s military intelligence agency, the GRU.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a respected global think tank, has revealed alarming evidence that Moscow has carried out “test runs” designed to sabotage Western critical infrastructure, including cargo planes and logistics hubs. According to the report, Russian agents disguised explosives inside electric massage machines filled with a magnesium-based flammable substance. These packages exploded in warehouses in Birmingham (UK), Leipzig (Germany), and near Warsaw (Poland). Researchers believe these incidents were dry runs for future large-scale attacks on cargo aircraft a chilling sign of Russia’s escalating shadow war.
From Ukraine to Europe: The Expanding Battlefield
Originally, Russian covert operations were largely focused on destabilizing Ukraine following the 2022 invasion. But as the war dragged on and sanctions hit Russia harder, the GRU began extending its operations into broader Europe.
The IISS report notes that in 2024 alone, at least 33 sabotage attempts were linked to Moscow, compared to just 13 in 2022 and nine in 2023. These included around 40 arson plots in Germany and Poland, a major fire at a Berlin weapons factory that produces air defense systems used in Ukraine, and even an explosion at a Spanish warehouse storing communications equipment intended for Kyiv.
In one particularly destructive incident, a massive fire tore through a Warsaw shopping center, later traced back to suspected Russian operatives.
Why the “Lull” in 2025 May Be Deceptive
So far in 2025, the IISS has recorded 11 plots—a noticeable drop from last year’s pace. On the surface, this looks like a reduction in Russian sabotage. But analysts caution that the apparent slowdown may actually reflect three things:
- Regrouping networks after a wave of arrests of suspected Russian operatives in Europe.
- Recalibrating tactics to avoid detection and increase effectiveness.
- Geopolitical caution, as the Kremlin may be seeking not to antagonize Donald Trump, who has projected a more conciliatory approach toward Moscow since returning to the political stage.
This last factor is especially significant. With the USA election 2024 live updates still fresh in people’s minds and Trump’s foreign policy positioning under scrutiny, experts believe the Kremlin is carefully watching Washington before launching new waves of sabotage.
Russia’s New Tactics: Outsourcing Sabotage
One of the most revealing parts of the report is how Russia has adapted its intelligence operations since its spies lost access to embassies in Europe after the 2018 Salisbury poisoning and the Ukraine invasion in 2022.
Instead of relying on diplomatic cover, Moscow is now outsourcing its sabotage work to criminal gangs, immigrant communities, and even students. Russian handlers reportedly use Telegram channels and online job ads especially targeting Eastern Europeans living abroad to recruit people for tasks ranging from spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda to carrying out arson and vandalism.
This so-called “gig economy approach to sabotage” has made Russian operations harder to detect. Low-level attacks, such as vandalism or warehouse fires, can be dismissed as random crimes, even though they are part of a coordinated campaign.
A Strategic Challenge for Europe and NATO
The IISS warns that Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics are designed to blur the lines between war and peace. By keeping these attacks below the threshold of open conflict, the Kremlin forces NATO and EU leaders into a grey area where decisive responses are politically difficult.
For now, NATO and the EU describe this as operating in the “grey zone” actions that fall short of conventional war but still undermine Western security. But analysts argue this definition has become a bureaucratic excuse for inaction, allowing Russia to normalize sabotage as a tool of statecraft.
The risk is that, if left unchecked, these operations could escalate into something far more dangerous potentially dragging Europe into deeper conflict with Russia.
Final Thoughts
The recent “quiet” in Russian sabotage activity is misleading. Far from retreating, the GRU appears to be regrouping, recalibrating, and preparing new waves of attacks. Whether this pause is connected to Donald Trump’s political comeback and Moscow’s desire to avoid provoking Washington remains to be seen.
What is clear is that Europe is facing a long-term campaign designed to weaken its resilience, unity, and ability to support Ukraine. As the IISS bluntly put it: allowing Russia to normalize sabotage as state policy risks long-term strategic erosion and dangerous miscalculations.
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