A leading military analyst has argued that Russia’s much-anticipated summer offensive in Ukraine has completely fallen short of its objectives. Julian Röpcke, a security journalist with the German outlet Bild, outlined in detail why he believes Moscow’s campaign has crumbled despite months of preparation.
One of Russia’s primary goals in the east was to seize Pokrovsk, a critical logistical hub for Ukraine’s army in the Donetsk region. Russian troops have been stationed near the city since January, but every attempt to storm it or cut off supply routes has failed. Even when several hundred Russian fighters briefly infiltrated Pokrovsk in August, Ukrainian forces quickly regained control. Within weeks, the saboteurs were either killed or captured. A Ukrainian officer told Bild: “We are holding the city and have prepared a few surprises for the Russians. The military situation is better than it appears on maps.”
Beyond Donetsk, Moscow has also fallen short of its other strategic ambitions. After Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region earlier this year, President Putin ordered his military to establish a 600-kilometer “buffer zone” across the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. However, Röpcke points out that Russia currently controls less than 70 kilometers along the border far from what the Kremlin envisioned.
The situation in southern Ukraine is described as “even more devastating.” Despite Russia’s annexation of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in 2022, frontlines there have hardly shifted. Ukraine continues to hold its positions firmly, undermining Moscow’s hopes of further territorial expansion.
Adding to Russia’s struggles, Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian infrastructure with long-range drones. According to Röpcke, Ukrainian strikes have destroyed around 17% of Russia’s oil refinery capacity since the start of 2025, sparking widespread fuel shortages and weakening the country’s war effort.
In total, Röpcke estimates that Russia has gained only 1,800 square kilometers of territory this year equivalent to just 0.3% of Ukraine’s land. He concludes: “All in all, Putin’s war is not going according to plan, even in the summer of 2025.”
From a political perspective, he argues this is one reason why President Volodymyr Zelensky is open to a ceasefire but not a surrender, as Moscow demands.
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