New 2028 Democratic Front-Runner Surges Ahead of Kamala Harris—Poll

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has overtaken former Vice President Kamala Harris in a new poll tracking potential contenders for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, according to results released Friday.

Though the 2028 primary is still about three years away, pollsters are already gauging voter preferences among possible candidates. The latest Emerson College poll highlights how Democrats currently view prominent figures like Buttigieg and Harris as they consider entering the race.

The party remains divided over its future strategy following setbacks in the 2024 elections. Some Democrats argue that a progressive candidate such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could energize the base, while others believe a moderate like Buttigieg could help reclaim support from independents.

According to the Emerson poll, Buttigieg leads as the most favored candidate among Democrats, with 16% expressing support. Harris trails at 13%. Nearly 25% of respondents remain undecided about their 2028 preference.

This marks a significant shift from Emerson’s November 2024 poll, where 37% favored Harris and only 4% supported Buttigieg shortly after the election.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, whose approval rose following his response to protests in Los Angeles, ranks third with 12% support. Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro each hold 7%, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has 5%. Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan each garnered 3%.

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between June 24 and 25 and carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

No major candidates have officially declared for the 2028 race yet. Harris is also considered a potential candidate for California governor, where polls indicate she would be a leading contender if she runs.

A Morning Consult poll released last week showed Harris with a stronger lead—34% planned to support her, compared to 7% for Buttigieg and 11% for Newsom. This poll surveyed 1,000 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents from June 13 to 15.

Similarly, a May McLaughlin poll found 29% of Democrats backing Harris, 10% leaning toward Buttigieg, and 9% supporting Ocasio-Cortez. That survey included 1,000 voters and was conducted from May 21 to 26.

Regarding her future plans, Harris said earlier this year while visiting wildfire-affected areas near Los Angeles, “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them... I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”

Buttigieg, speaking in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, in May, commented, “Democrats do not have the best brand around here or in a lot of places. There's a lot of reasons for that. Some fair, and some not fair.”

Typically, candidates wait until after the midterm elections to announce presidential runs. Harris indicated at a pre-Oscars party earlier this year that she expects to decide whether to run for governor by the end of summer.