Russia's Pearl Harbor: Putin Dealt 'Serious Loss' in Stand Off with NATO

 

Ukraine's Devastating Drone Offensive Damages Russia’s Strategic Airpower—and Boosts NATO Confidence

Ukraine’s sweeping and highly coordinated drone assault on Russian military airbases over the weekend marked one of the most damaging blows yet to Moscow’s long-range aerial capabilities—an area of its arsenal that had largely escaped the war's destruction until now.

But the strikes did more than hit Russia. NATO, which has been urgently preparing for the possibility of conflict with a heavily armed adversary, likely gained a strategic edge from Ukraine’s operation.

“Russia has suffered a serious loss in striking power—not just against Ukraine, but in relation to NATO as a whole,” said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at Dutch think tank TNO.

The daring attack unfolded on Sunday, when Ukraine launched a series of drone strikes targeting multiple Russian airbases, including some nearly 3,000 miles away in Siberia. The operation was so extensive and meticulously executed that some analysts compared it to a modern-day “Pearl Harbor”—a crippling surprise blow against high-value military targets.

Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, reported that the strike inflicted around $7 billion in damage, taking out over a third of Russia’s strategic cruise missile launch fleet. Among the aircraft hit were 41 planes—including Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers used to launch long-range missiles into Ukraine—as well as a rare and sophisticated A-50 surveillance aircraft, said SBU chief Lt. Gen. Vasyl Malyuk.

Footage circulating online shows multiple Russian aircraft in flames, with Ukrainian officials confirming that at least 13 were destroyed. Kyiv said it targeted four major airbases, while Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that FPV drones struck facilities in five regions: Amur, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Murmansk, and Ryazan. In a rare admission, Moscow confirmed that “several” aircraft were set ablaze in Murmansk and Irkutsk.

One airbase reportedly hit, Ukrainka in the Amur region, is a key hub for Russia’s long-range aviation. However, the SBU has not officially confirmed it as a target and declined further comment.

The impact could be lasting. According to Mertens, the Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft hit in the strikes are no longer in production, making replacements nearly impossible. “Russia’s capacity to carry out long-range precision strikes has taken a real blow,” he said. “That makes both Europe and the U.S. more secure in the event of a broader war.”

How Much Strategic Airpower Does Russia Have Left?

While the conflict has devastated large parts of Russia’s ground forces, its airpower has remained largely intact. In April 2024, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s top commander in Europe, said Russia had lost only about 10 percent of its air force since the war began in 2022.

Estimating Russia’s current bomber fleet is difficult, but according to The Economist, the country likely has fewer than 90 Tu-22, Tu-95, and Tu-160 bombers in total. Mertens noted that even if many aircraft remain, Russia’s operational capability may be more limited by its missile stockpile than by available planes.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, concluded that Sunday’s attack could at least temporarily hinder Russia’s ability to launch long-range missile and drone strikes into Ukraine.

Rising Tensions and Stalled Talks

NATO officials have increasingly raised alarms about a potential future confrontation with Russia, warning that the threat could intensify if a ceasefire were reached in Ukraine.

On Monday, Ukrainian and Russian officials met for a second round of peace talks in Turkey, but expectations for a breakthrough remain low.

In recent weeks, Russia has intensified its bombardment of Ukraine with drone and missile barrages. The escalation drew sharp criticism from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has often been reluctant to openly condemn Vladimir Putin but expressed anger over the expanding conflict.

Sunday’s Ukrainian strikes could now alter the diplomatic landscape. “This has had a tremendous impact,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee. “It might make Trump think more seriously about Kyiv’s position in negotiations.”

Merezhko said the operation not only boosted morale but also served as proof that Ukraine is not a liability for NATO. “We’re not a burden—we’re a shield for NATO,” he said, echoing Kyiv’s frequent argument that it is defending Europe’s eastern flank against further Russian aggression.

Operation Spiderweb: A Year-and-a-Half in the Making

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the mission—codenamed “Spiderweb”—as a “perfectly executed” success. According to the SBU, it took 18 months to plan and involved 117 individually operated drones, coordinated across three time zones.

The drones were smuggled into Russia hidden inside wooden shipping containers with removable roofs, then launched when the moment was right. “At the designated time, the container roofs opened remotely, and the drones took off to strike the bombers,” the SBU said.

Despite the renewed push for peace in Turkey, few believe Sunday’s daring strike will lead to immediate diplomatic progress. Still, Ukraine’s show of force may shift both military and political calculations in the days to come.