'In serious trouble' Putin warned 'shaky' elite support to 'evaporate' as discontent grows

As Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine continues to face fierce resistance, concerns are mounting about the potential political consequences for President Vladimir Putin—particularly within his own inner circle and among the Russian public.

Former UK Ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton warned that Putin’s hold on power could become unstable if the conflict in Ukraine proves prolonged or unsuccessful. Speaking to the BBC, Brenton said there is a long-standing tradition in Russia of rallying behind leaders during times of crisis, citing historical examples such as support for Tsar Alexander I during the Napoleonic wars and Stalin during WWII.

“Putin can be reasonably comfortable in the support and acquiescence of his people—until things begin to go wrong,” Brenton said. “If things go wrong, that acquiescence could rapidly evaporate.”

Brenton pointed out that a recent televised meeting of Russia’s Security Council already showed signs of unease among Putin’s top advisers, describing their posture as “pretty shaky.” He added that failure in Ukraine could have broader repercussions: “It could lead to domestic insurgencies, or a long-term quagmire similar to Afghanistan in the 1980s, which contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

Since the invasion began, estimates suggest that as many as 1,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed in just a few days. Meanwhile, public dissent inside Russia—though tightly controlled—has begun to surface. In St. Petersburg, Russian citizens protested against the war, with several demonstrators detained by authorities.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called for sweeping global sanctions, including an oil embargo and the expulsion of Russian ambassadors. He wrote on Twitter:

“Fully isolate Russia, expel ambassadors, oil embargo, ruin its economy.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the conflict as a “crucial moment” for Ukraine’s European future and called on EU leaders to fast-track Ukraine’s membership. He has also urged civilians to help defend Kyiv against advancing Russian forces, as military clashes intensify across the country.

Despite the violence, both the Russian and Ukrainian governments have indicated they may be open to negotiations, though expectations for immediate breakthroughs remain low.

The outcome of the conflict may not only shape Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s security architecture but could also influence Putin’s political survival. As Sir Tony Brenton suggested, even a military victory may come at a cost that destabilizes the very foundations of Putin’s rule.