John Bolton Warns Trump's Ukraine Shift Won't Win Him a Nobel Prize

 

“It’s very simple, and they’ll be at 100 percent,” Trump told reporters.

A Shift in Tone on Ukraine and Putin

This marks a notable shift for Trump, who during previous years had shown reluctance to escalate support for Ukraine and often downplayed Russia’s aggression. But ongoing missile strikes and failed negotiations have reportedly left Trump frustrated.

According to Bolton, Trump’s personal disappointment in Putin—who he once praised for their “beautiful phone calls”—is beginning to influence his decision-making.

“He believes he needs to do something to pull Putin back closer to him,” Bolton observed, suggesting that Trump’s weapons announcement is more about regaining influence than aligning with broader strategic goals.

Reports indicate Trump was particularly irked after a recent phone call with Putin was followed almost immediately by a major Russian air assault on Ukrainian cities, leaving Trump politically exposed.

Iran, Israel, and Image

Bolton also weighed in on Trump’s record in the Middle East. While he agreed with the 2025 joint Israeli-U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear targets, he criticized Trump for declaring victory too early and halting operations before Iran’s capabilities were fully dismantled.

“Regime change in Tehran is the only real solution,” said Bolton, a long-time hawk on Iran.

He contends that Trump supported the operation largely due to its potential success and global attention, not because of strategic calculations.

“Even a stopped clock can be right twice a day,” Bolton remarked, saying Trump’s motivations were again rooted in self-image.

The Elusive Nobel Peace Prize

Bolton also addressed Trump’s often-stated aspiration to win a Nobel Peace Prize, recalling that during his first term, Trump frequently compared himself to Barack Obama, who received the honor in 2009.

“He thought if Obama could get one, he certainly deserved it,” Bolton recalled.

However, Trump’s shifting stance on Ukraine—now backing weapons that could potentially reach deep into Russian territory—makes a peace prize unlikely, Bolton argued.

“From that point of view, it doesn’t look like there’s much chance to strike a deal between Ukraine and Russia — and therefore no Nobel Peace Prize to be won there.”

A Pattern of Governance by Instinct

Bolton remains skeptical that Trump’s recent shift on Ukraine or Iran signals any fundamental change in his worldview. Instead, he sees it as consistent with how Trump approaches foreign affairs—governing day by day based on impulse and perception.

“Each day is a new day. That’s just how he does things.”