Putin May Be Eyeing Moldova or the Baltics Next, Experts Warn

Fears of future Russian aggression are growing across Europe as experts suggest that Vladimir Putin may be laying the groundwork for military or hybrid actions beyond Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has been creating “informational conditions” to justify potential moves against countries like Moldova and the Baltic states.

This strategy, analysts say, mirrors the Kremlin’s messaging prior to its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine—especially the use of rhetoric around protecting Russian-speaking populations and promoting the concept of the “Russkiy Mir” or “Russian World.” This narrative frames former Soviet states as still culturally or politically tied to Moscow, and therefore subject to its “protection.”

In a cybersecurity advisory issued earlier this year, agencies from the United States, Germany, Poland, Estonia, and several other countries warned that Russia’s military intelligence service—the GRU—has been conducting cyber operations targeting NATO members, as well as Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine. These operations have primarily focused on defense infrastructure, transportation networks, and IT services, signaling what some believe to be preparation for future conflict scenarios.

U.S.-based military intelligence expert Rebekah Koffler, writing in The Telegraph, agrees that Russia is preparing for another potential campaign. However, she suggests that a direct attack on a NATO country is unlikely unless the alliance becomes actively involved in Ukraine’s battlefield.

“What NATO does or doesn’t do in the next few years could be highly significant in determining whether Putin decides to attack another post-Soviet state—such as Moldova,” Koffler warned.

Her analysis also highlights a deeper Russian strategy: undermining NATO’s technological and communication infrastructure. Rather than relying solely on brute military force, the Kremlin prefers indirect methods, such as targeting command and control systems, surveillance networks, and even space-based technologies that NATO forces rely on—often referred to collectively as C4ISR.

The takeaway for NATO members is clear: investing more in defense is important, but understanding and addressing the alliance’s strategic vulnerabilities is even more crucial. Russia’s approach to conflict is increasingly hybrid—combining military power, cyber tactics, disinformation, and intelligence operations to weaken its opponents before any shots are fired.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, the rest of Eastern Europe remains on alert, watching closely for signs of what might come next.